It’s always dangerous to put your January 1 ideas down in writing. If I had done so last year, I would have predicted a FAFSA nightmare, an election that would take our breaths away, and a very different landscape for college athletes.
Huh.
Well, since it looks like this water isn’t so shark-infested after all, here’s where I think 2025 is headed in our ever-quirky profession:
FAFSA Relief With so many College Board employees being “borrowed” last summer to fix FAFSA, there were concerns they’d head back to New York with the FAFSA keys in their back pockets, ready to make it a pay-to-play form.
Not so. Early trials suggest we’re in for a much better, maybe normal, year of FAFSA. Now the question is, what will the Department of Education do to win back the thousands (millions?) of students whose college plans were deconstructed because of last year’s debacle. Some kind of publicized outreach would be nice.
The End of ED Despite everyone’s hopes and/or fears, the US Department of Education isn’t going anywhere. The amount of programs for special needs students that would have to find a new home is just too huge to consider. So, while ED has never been the change agent it was intended to be, it won’t be a thing of the past.
What could happen is the weakening of ED by shipping key programs (FAFSA?) to other agencies and departments. This trick was performed by Michigan Republicans with the state department of education in the 1990s, and, respectfully, no one really noticed much of a change in the level of service. Moving programs makes for easier congressional votes (if any) than axing an entire division of government, since they get less press. Keep an eye out.
College Athletics There are two parts of colleges that have way too much adult involvement—college admissions, and college athletics. Drastic changes in pay-to-play have already given more power to grownups who don’t always have the best interest of athletes in mind, and small college athletic programs are likely to start feeling the pain of small wallets this year. This will affect how college counselors advise student athletes in high schools, even though counselors won’t have nearly enough information to read all the tea leaves, leaving the potential for bad choices, wrong choices, and unhappy parents. This could get ugly.
Media and College Access Birth rates, high school graduation rates, and some levels of college enrollment are all down, giving the Wall Street Journal et al a perfect opportunity to recognize that most college-going occurs outside the only 25 colleges they cover. Instead, look for more articles about how much easier it’s going to be to get into Harvard—as in, from an admit rate of 3 percent to, gasp, 7 percent. Because, you know, that suggests there’s a chance.
The best thing national media could do to advance college access is to recognize North Dakota State is a great place to go to school, too. Not this year.
Saluting Jon Boeckenstedt Jon’s work at DePaul and Oregon State changed college admissions for the better, as he used his position, data, and blog to get professionals to think about enrollment and life in ways we hadn’t before. He’s going into consulting this year, and the hope is he’ll continue to steer the ship to innovative waters from his home office. For now, the profession owes a huge debt to a guy who had the brains and heart to find the time to not just ask “What if…”, but to answer his own amazing questions. My friend, we thank you.
